The Bharatiya Janata Party’s Parivartan rally addressed by PM Narendra Modi in Jaipur has intensified the suspense over the party’s chief ministerial candidate for the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections. PM Modi’s speech gave no indications whether the BJP will project a CM face or ride on his popularity for the crucial polls. In this article, we analyze the CM conundrum facing the saffron party in Rajasthan.
No Clear Signal on BJP’s CM Candidate in Jaipur Rally
During the September 2023 rally in Jaipur, PM Modi asserted that the BJP’s symbol ‘Lotus‘ will be the face of the party in the Rajasthan Assembly Election.
He stated “Our identity and pride are just Lotus“, hinting that the polls may be fought under his leadership rather than announcing a chief ministerial pick beforehand.
This speech came as a surprise since Vasundhara Raje’s supporters expected her to be named the CM candidate in the PM’s presence. However, the awaited announcement did not transpire.
PM’s Statement Hints at BJP’s Poll Strategy in Rajasthan Assembly Election
As per political experts, PM Modi’s statement indicates that the BJP may adopt a strategic approach by not naming a CM contender before the Rajasthan Assembly Election.
This allows the party to overcome any perceived lack of unity in the state unit or infighting over the chief ministerial post.
Riding on Brand Modi alone gives the BJP flexibility while uniting cadres towards one central goal of securing a majority. The PM’s popularity also helps counter anti-incumbency in states like Rajasthan after the full tenure of the Congress government.
Vasundhara Raje’s Role in the Rajasthan Assembly Election Still Unknown
Former chief minister Vasundhara Raje has staked claim to being the BJP’s CM candidate based on her electoral record and appeal.
Under her leadership, the BJP won two straight terms in 2003 and 2013 in Rajasthan. She is considered a key force with influence across all 25 Lok Sabha seats.
However, Raje has also courted controversies recently with allegations of going soft on the Gehlot government over corruption cases. This seeming separation has created uncertainty about whether the BJP will still back Raje as the CM face.
Gajendra Shekhawat Emerges as Key Contender
With Rajasthan politics in flux, Union Minister Gajendra Shekhawat has emerged as a formidable CM choice challenging Raje’s supremacy. Other prospective candidates like state BJP chief Satish Poonia, Rajendra Rathore, and Rajyavardhan Rathore are also in the race.
But Shekhawat, also the MP from Jodhpur, is considered a strong OBC leader who can sway crucial caste equations in the BJP’s favor.
Balancing Castes – BJP’s Key Challenge
Rajasthan has a diverse population comprising Jats, Rajputs, Gujjars, and other communities who impact election outcomes. The Jat community is estimated to comprise about 12% of the state population while Rajputs are around 7%. The Gujjar population stands at 5-6%.
Managing these caste dynamics to prevent any divisions in the BJP’s vote bank remains a key challenge. This will be a major factor in the party’s eventual CM choice for the Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023.
The BJP understands that just consolidating its traditional vote bank may not be enough to unseat the Gehlot government. It needs to make inroads into traditional Congress strongholds.
Areas like Bharatpur, Alwar, Banswara, Chittorgarh, and Sawai Madhopur have a significant Muslim population along with Dalits where the BJP needs to build its presence.
The party’s CM pick and wider poll strategy will be aimed at broadening its base by appealing to diverse castes and communities in Rajasthan.
With polls nearing, suspense prevails whether the BJP will ultimately back Raje for a historic third term or project a new face to take on the Gehlot-led Congress.